Serie A Betting – Cheat Sheet – 21st October
Sunday Calcio is here! enjoy our Serie A Betting cheat sheet, hopefully you take some value from these nuggets of information to aid your bets
Frosinone v Empoli
- Frosinone without CM’s Krajnc and Hallfredsson as well as Perica at CF
- Empoli without CB Veseli but have both LB’s fit again (Antonelli and Pasqual)
- Frosinone sit in 19th position on just one point, which came courtesy of a goalless home draw against Bologna in August.
- This is a relegations “ six-pointer” we can expect both teams to be desperate to win this one
- These teams met twice in Serie B last season, both had 6 goals!
- Frosinone have been unfortunate not to have scored more as their xG tally shows. (8.93 xG with only 3 goals scored)
- These teams rank 2nd (Frosinone) and 4th (Empoli) worst in the league for shots allowed
Bologna v Torino
- Iago Falque returning for Torino is a big boost in attack
- Torino are unbeaten in their last 10 games against bottom half teams (scored 19, conceded 8)
- Bologna have only seen 1 of their previous 15 home matches in Serie A end in a draw
- Under Filippo Inzaghi Bologna have only scored 6 times in 9 matches
- Bologna have the 3rd worst xG and 2nd worst goals tally in the league at present
- Torino are unbeaten in 70.3% of their games under Walter Mazzarri
- Torino have the 2nd lowest xGA in the league with 8.53. Only Juventus are better
Chievo v Atalanta
- After getting Italy eliminated from the World Cup Gian Piero Ventura will return to management today when he takes over at Chievo
- His last stint in Serie A was with Torino when he managed them from 2011-2016. During this time his team averaged a mediocre 1.29 points per game
- Giaccherini is injured for Chievo and will be sorely missed, he’s one of their best creative outlets
- Chievo have the wost xGA total in the league 17.85 and the 2nd lowest xG output with only 6.71
- Atalanta have won 6 of their last 10 trips to teams in the bottom 6 and have averaged 2.3 goals in such games
Parma v Lazio
- Parma have their main goal scoring threat back in Roberto Inglese but Gervinho is still sidelined.
- Lazio will be close to full strength with only Badelj and Durmisi struggling for fitness.
- Parma’s last 7 matches in Serie A reads W5 D0 L2 – Losses came to Napoli and Juventus.
- Parma do have the 3rd worst xGA in the league which tells us they may be slightly fortunate not to have conceded a lot more than they have already.
- Lazio haven’t been as hot upfront this season but are still ranking 5th for xG and 4th for xGA.
- Lazio have won 7 of their last 10 matches with newly promoted sides scoring on average 2.4 goals per game.
Fiorentina v Cagliari
- Cagliari are without. Srna, Klavan, and Lykogiannis in defence.
- Luca Ceppitelli who has seen only 20 mins of action in Serie A this season will likely start at CB.
- Fiorentina will be at full strength with Mirallas returning to fitness.
- With a total of 16.9 xG Fiorentina trail only Juventus this season for chances created.
- Cagliari have the 4th highest xGA in the league with 14.8 xGA despite only conceding 9 times. This tells us they’ve been fortunate not to have conceded more.
- Cagliari have lost 9 of their last 10 matches when travelling to Top 6 teams (3 scored, 21 conceded).
Inter v Milan
- Inter have won just one of their last six competitive meetings with Milan, drawing 3 and losing 2. Inter have have also failed to score in their last two meetings with their city rivals
- Inter have failed to win 6 of their last 10 matches with Top 6 sides (Milan 11th but 2 games in hand)
- Both of these teams xG and XGA records for the season are very similar. We should expect a close hard fought game
- 11 of the last 12 meetings between these sides has either ended in a draw or been decided by a single goal
- Milan are averaging 16.66 attempts on goal per game this season. That’s 2nd only to Juventus
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