Europa League Betting Preview – Thursday
AC Milan v Real Betis
- One significant absentee for AC Milan, Hakan Çalhanoğlu will miss out and will likely be replaced by Fabio Borini
- Real Betis will be without CM Guardado, LW Joaquin and DM Javi Garcia
- Milan have an excellent home record in Europa and this showed last season when they went undefeated in 7 of their 8 home games in Europe
- Real Betis are coming off back to back losses in La Liga and have been a huge disappointment overall.
- Goals have been a huge problem for Betis lately, but surprisingly they have cleaned up their defensive game and now boast the best xGA numbers in the whole of La Liga with only 7.89 xGA conceded
- With both teams being so strong at the back Goals could be at a premium in this game.
RB Leipzig v Celtic
- Leipzig are without LW Forsberg, DM Demme, and CB Konate.
- Celtic are without CB Ajer, CM Brown, AM Rogic, CF Griffiths and RM Forrest.
- Leipzig have found the net at least twice in 6 of their 7 home games this season (All competitions)
- Celtic have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 16 away games in the Europa League
- Leipzig have seen BTTS in 71.4% of their Europa League games since making their debut last season.
- There have been 16 goals scored in RB Leipzig’s last three Europa League games, at an average of 5.3 per game.
- 12 of Leipzig’s last 18 games in European competitions have seen Over 2,5 Goals
- Celtic have failed to win a single game or keep a clean sheet in any of their last 13 Europa League away games
- Brendan Rodgers record in the Champions League / Europa League (Proper) reads W3 D3 L10
- A 3-0 away win to Anderlecht was their only victory on the road
Rangers v Spartak Moscow
- Rangers without Dorrans at CM and Arfield at LM. Barasic at LB is a doubt
- Spartak are under new management (Caretaker), Raúl Riancho who has worked mostly as an assistant or fitness coach will take charge in this game
- Rangers have lost only 2 of 21 games under Steven Gerrard
- Rangers have played a total of 10 European games so far this season and are yet to be beaten
- Spartak have one away win in Europe in their last 14 outings. That sole win came last season when the visited the San Mamés and beat Athletic Club 2-1
- Spartak are also struggling domestically with only 5 wins from 11 in the Russian Premier League
- Spartaks four games against Scottish opposition have all been against Celtic and they have failed to win any of them (D2 L2)
Marseille v Lazio
- Marseille are without Rolando at CB and Thauvin at LW but will welcome back Rami, Sanson and N’Jie
- Lazio are more depleted with Basta RB and LW Correa are both suspended, Durmisi LB, Badelj DM, Lukaku LB and Patric RB all injured. Creative talent Luis Alberto has also been rested ahead of this game too as he’s struggling for fitness.
- Marseille have won 8 of their last 10 at the Vélodrome in the Europa League. Their one loss came to Frankfurt, however, Marseille were on top for large portions of the game and were unlucky to lose as the xG suggests (1.78-0.92 in Marseille’s favour)
- Lazio have conceded at least once in 9 of their last 10 away games in the Europa League. In their most recent European away games, they conceded 4 goals in both (Frankfurt & Salzburg)
- There have been over 2.5 goals in 8 of Marseille’s last 10 games (in all competitions)
Chelsea v BATE Borisov
- Jorghino and Hazard will be rested for this game which could mean starts for Loftus-Cheek and Moses
- Olivier Giroud who should start tonight scored for Arsenal in both group games against BATE in last season
- BATE’s away form when travelling to “Top teams” in Europe shouldn’t inspire too much hope. Last season Arsenal put 6 past them, FC Koln 5, and then earlier this season PSV put 3 past them.
- BATE attempted to play a conservative 4-5-1 against PAOK in the last matchday and the Greeks put 4 past them on their own home turf.
- Chelsea’s last home performances was a little concerning. Chelsea played the worst team in the group (MOL Vidi) and only managed 4 shots on target in a 1-0 win. The Blues dominated the game from start to finish with 76% possession but struggled to find a breakthrough.
- The same can be said for their game with PAOK, they dominated the Greeks from start to finish but only managed 5 shots on target and 1 goal.
Besiktas v Genk
- Besiktas are without 3 starters in Ljajic, Pepe and Babel
- Genk are without two key men in Sander Berge (DM) and Top Goalscorer Leandro Trossard (LW)
- Besiktas have an excellent home record in all competitions having only lost once in their last 19
- From these 19 games, Besiktas scored 2+ goals on 14 occasions.
- The Turks last 10 at home in the Europa League have seen them W8 D2 L0.
- Genk have played 7 away games in the Europa League since 2017 and have kept 0 clean sheets and have conceded 2+ goals in 5 of those games
- Domestically Genk are the best team in Belgium at the moment and that shows in their xG and shot data
Anderlecht v Fenerbahce
- Anderlecht are without CB Vranjes and possibly without CF and Top Goalscorer Dimata
- Fener have one significant absentee in DM Mehmet Topal
- New Fenerbahce coach Phillip Cocu has endured a horrific start to his career in Turkey with only 3 wins from 13 games so far.
- With that being said their current Süper Lig position (15th) probably isn’t a fair reflection of their performances. Fener rank 2nd best in their league for xGA and 5th best for xG despite having the lowest goal tally in the league (6)
- Anderlecht have a decent record at home in this competition but with back to back losses, they’re now desperate for a win.
- Fenerbahce are not playing as bad as their recent results show, this one should be a closer game than the odds suggest but no bet from me here.
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