Betting Discipline is perhaps the reason many who can find that elusive edge don’t go on to make long-term profits.
When I talk about betting discipline, I mean your ability to handle the inevitable losing runs, and only to place bets when you feel you have an edge. Fun Bets or Interest bets are the downfall of many otherwise profitable gamblers.
A fun bet is any bet you place that doesn’t meet your usual criteria for a ‘value bet’. It could be a bet on the Monday night football just because it’s on TV, even though you have no strong inclination, or it might be a bet on a race at Southwell while you’re waiting for the Champions League to start. These type of bets are a drain on the profits you make from your main bets, the ones you really fancy. The ones you’re confident you have an edge on.
If your local casino had a special offer, where every hour on the hour they tossed a coin and offered everyone around 11/10 on heads, you would have found an edge. In the long-term by backing heads each time you will win money with this offer, Let’s say this offer was limited to a £100 bet per person. Your expectation for each bet would be a profit of £5 ((50% of (100*2.1) – £100)).
So if you pop into the casino just before the hour for six hours every day you will make on average a profit of £30 a day. You have an edge, and you’re exploiting it to make an overall profit. If however you take up residence in the casino for the day, and whilst you’re waiting for your hourly bet, you play some blackjack. Let’s say the casino has an edge of 2% per hand, and you play sixty hands an hour, meaning that if you bet £10 a hand you would have an expected loss of £12 an hour. So while you’re waiting to place your hourly ‘value bet’ you’re also placing lots of smaller bets that more than eliminate the profits your making from the coin toss bet.
It’s inevitable that you’re going to hit losing streaks when betting; I’ve been at this for 17 years and a losing streak can send you into a downward spiral of chasing losses. When a losing streak hits it’s vital to not let your emotions get the best of you and remember that you’re in this for the long haul. Variance is inevitable and even the best sports bettor on the planet isn’t immune to a 10 game losing streak.
Here at Bookie Insiders we track all of our Premium Tips on a free to use program called bettin.gs. During a losing streak it’s always nice to look back and have a clearer picture of the situation. For example just this week I hit only 3 winners from 20 selections in what was my worst spell in well over a year. Although it felt like I was losing my touch, looking back over the past 4 years of results assured me that this is perfectly normal and that the long-term I was making a tidy profit.
Bookieinsiders was founded in 2013 with the aim of passing on the knowledge we learned working for bookmakers onto the average punter. This coupled with in-depth statistical analysis and in-depth research has allowed us to turn a Profit every year on Football, Tennis, US Sports, and UFC to the tune of around £28,000 from flat £50 single stakes on each one of our Tips
All our 1 year packages are 100% refundable if we don’t make you a profit – Yes we’re that confident, winning money from betting is easy if you don’t fall into the bookies hands
Read a review of our Tennis Service
Read a review of our Football Service
Become a PRO with our Premium Tips Service