Bundesliga Betting Preview – Saturday
Dusseldorf v Hertha Berlin
- Fortuna has conceded the most goals in the Bundesliga this season (24), and all their games bar one (v Leipzig) against Top half teams have produced 3 or more goals.
- The hosts also have the worst goalscoring record in the league with only 6 goals scored this season.
- Their xG indicates they have been slightly unlucky though as they’ve generated 11.51 xG so far this season.
- Fortuna have conceded 2+ goals in all of their last 6 Bundesliga games
- Hertha still have the highest xGA (22.07) in the Bundesliga which tells us they’re giving their opponents up a lot of good goalscoring chances. Fortuna have the 3rd highest with 19.66xGA.
- Fortuna will likely be without DM Sobotka and CB Andre Hoffman while Hertha will be close to full strength.
- The Blau-Weiß have lost 5 of their last 9 away matches against newly promoted teams with 12 scored and 12 conceded.
- Hertha this season are averaging only 9.28 shots on goal per game this season which is close to being the worst in the league. Fortuna are only marginally better with 10.51 (5th worst)
- Fortuna’s coach is likely to shake things up here tactically, don’t be surprised to see them sit deep and rely on counter attacks as they attempt to break their losing streak
Freiburg v Mainz
- Mainz will be without their starting GK Florian Muller and CM Ridle Baku.
- The host’s backup goalkeeper Zentner has conceded 26 goals in his last 14 Bundesliga appearances.
- Freiburg are unbeaten in 8 of their last 10 at home against bottom half opposition with 13 scored and 10 conceded.
- The visitors have won only 3 of their last 35 away games in the Bundesliga and have conceded on average 1.8 goals per game.
- Going forward these teams don’t do much, Mainz rank 5th worst for xG while Freiburg are 7th worst
- The same goes for attempts on goal with both of these teams ranking among the worst in the league with an average of only 10 attempts each per game.
- In terms of defence though we have to give the advantage to the visitors, they’ve given up only 14.13 xGA and 11 goals so far this season which makes them one of the best defensive units in the league so far this season.
- Saying that Mainz haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 8 away games in the Bundesliga.
- Freiburg have won this fixture the last two season’s in a row (1-0, and 2-1)
Hoffenheim v Augsburg
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FC Nürnberg v Stuttgart
- Stuttgart will be without LB Insua, LB Sosa, CF Donis, AM Ozcan while AM Daniel Didavi is a doubt.
- Nurnberg will be without Valentini at RB and Löwen at DM.
- This is the 4th match in charge for Markus Weinzierl, so far his Stuttgart side have lost all the games he’s managed scoring 0 and conceding 11.
- These games however came against 3 of the best attacking teams in the league (BVB, Hoffenheim, and Frankfurt).
- Overall away from home in the league this season Frankfurt have failed to keep a clean sheet once with an average of 2.6 goals conceded per game.
- Both of these teams rank dead last in the league for chance creation with Nürnberg being only slightly better so far this season.
- Nürnberg have been decent at home this season with a record that reads W2 D2 L1 with 8 scored and 5 conceded. They also found the net at least once in all of these games.
- Stuttgart have failed to win 8 of their last 10 matches against teams in the bottom 6 with an average of 1.8 goals conceded per game.
- Stuttgart have also only managed 2 clean sheets in their last 20 road games in the league. Only Hannover have a worse record during that time span.
Werder Bremen v Borussia M’Gladbach
- Werder have now tasted back to back defeats for the first time under Florian Kohfeldt and will now need to show a real test of character against a Gladbach side brimming with confidence
- Werder lost 6-2 to Leverksen in their last home game, prior to that they have been on a 16 game unbeaten streak at the Weserstadion
- Gladbach’s fortunes away from home have been a mixed back of results with 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses.
- The visitors also only managed only 1 clean sheet in their 5 away games this season (v Bayern)
- Borussia’s last 8 games in the Bundesliga have been high scoring with Over 2.5 goals cashing in all.
- Gladbach have the joint 2nd best attack in the league at the moment with 23 goals scored. Hazard, Plea, and Hofmann have been particularly effective this season
- Gladbach, however, do have a poor record when facing Top 6 teams, in their last 10 we’ve seen them win only once while conceding 1.8 goals per game
- Werder Bremen, in contrast, are undefeated in 6 of their last 10 games against Top 6 opposition
- Werder are among the most proficient at the back this season despite the leathering they took of Leverkusen. So far this season they’ve given up only 12.1 xGA which is the 3rd best in the league only behind Bayern and Schalke
- Werder Bremen have failed to beat Gladbach in their last 5 attempts.
Dortmund v Bayern Munich
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