Guaranteed profit – How to Hedge a bet

Hedging is a strategy often used by professional gamblers to guarantee profit on Outright markets.

Guaranteed profits banner image

One of our favourite strategies to guarantee profit is to find a bet in an outright market that is “under valued” in our opinion. One such example of this was Atletico Madrid in the 13/14 season. They were priced at 40/1 with one bookie so we placed a bet on them for £50 with confidence that this price would get shorter over the course of the season.

We couldn’t have imagined how well this trade would pay off. Below we explain how we guaranteed profit of £800 from the original £50 bet.

Hedge to guarantee profit

We backed Atletico Madrid to win La Liga at 40/1 with a £50 stake (£2,000 potential returns).

When we placed this bet it was always our intention to hedge our bet once Atletico Madrid’s odds got shorter. With about 10 games to go in the season it was close between the Top 3 and Atletico’s odds were pushed into about 10/1.

At this stage we could have hedged our liability by ‘laying’ Atletico on a betting exchange (such as Betfair) for £50 at 10/1 (liability £500). This would ensure that if Atletico didn’t win the league we wouldn’t be at a loss as the original stake is covered with the ‘lay’ bet, and if Atletico won the League we’d now be banking £1,500 instead of the original £2,000.

“Hedging involves placing bets on different outcomes in order to secure a guaranteed profit regardless of whether the original bet wins or loses.”

But we didn’t want to do that, we felt it would come down to the wire and hung on until the final day of the season. The match was Barca -v- Atletico at the Camp Nou. Atletico needed to draw or win to secure the title.

Guaranteed profit small image. Showing Atletico and Barcelona table with games played, points accumulated and the profit of each outcome.

 

As we were on the verge of winning £2,000 if Atletico managed a minimum of a draw we thought it would be smart to hedge our bet and guarantee profit on whatever the outcome.

Barcelona were 1.8(4/5) to win this game so we decided to put a stake of £1,000 on Barca at 4/5 to guarantee profit on the hedge.

Here’s how the 3 different outcomes would have worked out after our Hedge

  • Barca win the game – +£800 (From the £1000 bet we just placed before the game).
  • A draw +£1000 (from the original 40/1 bet at the start of the season).
  • Atletico win the game +£1000 (from the original 40/1 bet at the start of the season).

The game finished 1-1 in the end and Atletico won the the Title. You may think we wasted £1,000 by hedging our bet, but in reality we did the smart thing. Anything can happen in a football match, and we could have easily ended up with nothing on another day.

From experience there is no better feeling than hedging your bets and getting to a stage were guaranteed profit is secured.

Of course this strategy won’t work every time, first you must identify a value bet that has been “under valued” by the bookie.

We’ve used to strategy to devastating effect with our tennis tips this year with four Outright Tips that were priced at 40/1, 40/1, 35/1 and 6/1. @Insiderstennis is the master at finding undervalued Outright Tips and I highly recommend you follow his advice


 

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