Betting Discipline


Betting Discipline is perhaps the reason many who can find that elusive edge don’t go on to make long-term profits.

When I talk about betting discipline, I mean your ability to handle the inevitable losing runs, and only to place bets when you feel you have an edge. Fun Bets or Interest bets are the downfall of many otherwise profitable gamblers.

A fun bet is any bet you place that doesn’t meet your usual criteria for a ‘value bet’. It could be a bet on the Monday night football just because it’s on TV, even though you have no strong inclination, or it might be a bet on a race at Southwell while you’re waiting for the Champions League to start. These type of bets are a drain on the profits you make from your main bets, the ones you really fancy. The ones you’re confident you have an edge on.

If your local casino had a special offer, where every hour on the hour they tossed a coin and offered everyone around 11/10 on heads, you would have found an edge. In the long-term by backing heads each time you will win money with this offer, Let’s say this offer was limited to a £100 bet per person. Your expectation for each bet would be a profit of £5 ((50% of (100*2.1) – £100)).

So if you pop into the casino just before the hour for six hours every day you will make on average a profit of £30 a day. You have an edge, and you’re exploiting it to make an overall profit. If however you take up residence in the casino for the day, and whilst you’re waiting for your hourly bet, you play some blackjack. Let’s say the casino has an edge of 2% per hand, and you play sixty hands an hour, meaning that if you bet £10 a hand you would have an expected loss of £12 an hour. So while you’re waiting to place your hourly ‘value bet’ you’re also placing lots of smaller bets that more than eliminate the profits your making from the coin toss bet.

It’s inevitable that you’re going to hit losing streaks when betting; I’ve been at this since for 17 years and a losing streak can send you into a downward spiral of chasing losses. The important thing to remember is when this happens that you’re making money in the long-term so long as you don’t get emotional and start chasing.

We analyse and track our bets on Monthly Spreadsheets, it’s vital to keep track of your bets and look over your winners and losers, when looking at a losing streak, try to access of you’ve been doing something different or if it’s just been an unlucky week. If you’re making consistent profits, don’t make an unnecessary changes.

Bookieinsiders was founded in 2013 with the aim of passing on the knowledge we learned working for bookmakers onto the average punter. This coupled with in-depth statistical analysis and in-depth research has allowed us to turn a Profit every year on Football, Tennis, NFL, and UFC to the tune of around £14,000 from flat £50 single stakes on each one of our Tips

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